Tungsten Mining Stock ALM Rises 10% in a Single Day, But Goldman Sachs Only Offers $13?

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Tungsten Mining Stock ALM Rises 10% in a Single Day, But Goldman Sachs Only Offers $13?

Friday, September 25, 2026

Why is ALM trending today?

On September 25, Almonty Industries ($ALM) surged 10.65% in a single day, closing at $13.72, with trading volume expanding to 1.7 times the daily average over the past three months, pushing its market value back above $3.89 billion.

What ignited the market wasn't the earnings report, but a pair of completely opposite initial brokerage reviews: Stifel gave a "buy" and a $25 price target, while Goldman Sachs only gave a "neutral" rating and $13, lower than the closing price.

Meanwhile, South Korea's Sangdong tungsten mine just received final commercial operation certification on September 17. On one side, the mine has finally started shipping; on the other, top investment banks say it's "no longer cheap"—is this 10% increase a sign of value or an emotional catch-up rally?

Latest price $13.72 ▲ +10.65%

Q2 revenue 43 million Canadian dollars ▲ Year-on-year +498%

Height 52 weeks apart $24.41 ▼ -43.8%

A rare Western supplier of tungsten that is "de-Sinicized."

Almonty is a vertically integrated tungsten mining company headquartered in Dylon, Montana, USA, covering the entire tungsten concentrate chain from mining, processing, to transportation, while also exploring tin and tungsten deposits, offering dual-type development options.

Its asset portfolio spans Canada, South Korea, Portugal, Spain, and the United States. The company holds 100% ownership in all projects and mines, and in September, it established a joint venture with the Rwandan government with a 75% stake, extending its reach into Africa.

The true heart is the Korean Sangdong mine

Phase I is designed to have a processing capacity of 640,000 tons/year, and Phase II has been approved to expand to 1.2 million tons/year. Over 90% of Phase I's output has been locked in by long-term underwriting agreements, meaning the new income is not entirely based on spot prices.

If we compare the global tungsten supply to a highway passing almost entirely through China, Almonty aims to create that "backup lane"—a small traffic flow but an emergency corridor inseparable from Western military industry and high-end manufacturing.

What score would it give for irreplaceability?

The report gives a non-fungible score of 6/10, which is above average. Its value comes from resource control, multinational licensing experience, and supply stability brought by integration, rather than patents, brands, or network effects.

Tungsten concentrate is a highly homogeneous industrial raw material, and in theory, customers can switch suppliers at any time; But against the backdrop of increasingly tightening "de-Sinicization" procurement rules, non-Chinese mines that can deliver stably are few and far between, and this scarcity is precisely the source of valuation premiums.

Behind the 62x P/E ratio, there is 173 million yuan in unrealized profit on paper

According to the latest data, ALM's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is about 62 times, with earnings per share of $0.22. On the surface, this is a profitable mining company, but the judgment in the research report that "key financial data is completely missing and may not be profitable" has been overturned by the latest financial report.

But breaking down the Q2 books, of the CAD 181.8 million net profit, $173.1 million came from non-cash revaluation gains from derivatives and warrants—these are fair value fluctuations of convertible bonds and capped options under international financial reporting standards, not money from selling tungsten.

**The numbers that truly reflect business operations are

Revenue was CAD 43 million, up 498% year-over-year, adjusted EBITDA was CAD 17.6 million, and gross margin was 60.7%. **Excluding non-cash gains, a 62x P/E doesn't seem so "cheap."

The original scenario valuation model in the report assumed annual revenue of $100 million to $500 million, but the calculated fair market value was only $200 million to $1.125 billion, far below the current price. These assumptions are based on "missing data" and are somewhat outdated, but the logic they reveal still holds: The current market cap is betting on full production of Sangdong and high tungsten prices, not today's profits.

Cash flow: From "can't see clearly" to "your wallet is full"

The research report once judged cash flow to be unassessable. The latest update is that the company completed an $800 million convertible bond issuance in June, with about CAD 1.23 billion in cash as of June 30, far higher than CAD 268.4 million at the end of last year, and repaid KfW term loans early after the quarter.

Short-term financing pressure is basically relieved, but the cost is potential dilution: once convertible bonds are converted, shareholder equity will be diluted. So here's the question—Goldman Sachs at $13, Stifel at $25, both clearly on the same ledger, why are their conclusions nearly half different? **

The point of disagreement lies precisely here

With Sandong starting production and high tungsten prices, how much of the has already been priced into the $13.72 stock price? Goldman Sachs' answer is "mostly cashed out," while Stifel bets that ramp-up production will bring better-than-expected results.

Transitioning from "commercial pilot" to "a surge in volume ramp-up"

The report classified Almonty as a commercial pilot stage, citing that it already has actual mining and processing facilities but lacks evidence of stable revenue. Now, Sandong has obtained commercial operation certification and can invoice for deliveries, with revenue surging for two consecutive quarters. The ** phase is already transitioning to "a surge in volume ramp-up."

But the market did not fully accept it

The stock price is still about 9% below the 50-day moving average at $15.08, and about 11.5% below the 200-day moving average at $15.51. Today's rally only recovered some of the losses. Fundamentals are upgrading, but technicals are still in the breakout range This misalignment itself is the biggest highlight.

Compared to Chinese giants, it wins by being "not China"

The global tungsten market is dominated by China, with Xiamen Tungsten, Jiangxi Tungsten, and Luoyang Molybdenum controlling most of the output through scale and resource control, giving them stronger pricing power but also influenced by China's export policies and environmental restrictions. Most of the remaining overseas players are small and medium-sized mining companies in Portugal, Spain, and other regions.

Almonty differentiates itself in three ways: dispersed assets across five countries, an integrated chain covering mining and transportation, and dual tungsten-tin hedging. Its disadvantages are also obvious: Much smaller scale than Chinese market leaders, no patents or brand premiums, homogeneous products, and low customer switching costs.

The report positions it as a "regional differentiated player," with a global market share expected to be below 5%. So, what makes a company with less than 5% a market share support nearly $3.9 billion in market value? The answer is not cost, but geographic—on Western procurement lists, it is one of the few "compliance options."

The real moat is actually regulatory barriers

Multinational mining permits, environmental approvals, and community consent take years to accumulate, making it difficult for new entrants to replicate. The Rwandan joint venture project was facilitated by the U.S. State Department, which also indirectly demonstrates the weight of this government relationship.

Tungsten prices have increased nearly sevenfold, and the ceiling has been raised

The report estimates that in 2023, global tungsten consumption will be about 100,000 tons, with a market size of approximately 3 to 4 billion USD, an annual growth rate of 5% to 8%, and the global market size may reach 4 to 5 billion USD by 2026; The service market focused on Western markets is about 1 to 1.5 billion USD, accounting for 25% to 30% of the global total.

However, the price assumptions in research reports are clearly outdated

In Q2, European APT tungsten prices reached $3,075/ton per ton, compared to $453 in the same period last year. The price surge means the market ceiling by value is much higher than the research report estimates, but high prices may also stimulate the supply of alternative materials and new ore.

In the three-year scenario of the report, if optimistic, Almonty could reach a market size of $500 million to $800 million; if neutral, $300 million to $500 million; if pessimistic, only $100 million to $200 million. How long tungsten prices can stay at high levels determines which tier it falls into.

The four trump cards in the bulls' eyes

Bulls believe Almonty is standing on a triple resonance of "capacity landing + geopolitical premium + high tungsten prices." Today's divergence is precisely the entry window for long-term funds:

▲ Bull Case

The bear was staring at five cracks

Bears argue that the good story has been told all year long, and the stock price is drawing far more out of expectations than the actual cash on the income statement:

▼ Bear Case

Next, keep an eye on these matters

Today's rally priced Sangdong's investment and brokerage's initial evaluation all at once, and the subsequent stock price rhythm will depend on "realization speed":

•	Sandong Phase I production ramp-up and first batch delivery data: In the next 1-2 quarters, meeting expectations is positive, delaying is negative
•	Q3 Financial Report: Expected around November, focusing on operating profit excluding non-cash items
•	Tungsten Price Trend: Within 3-6 months, if APT prices continue to rise, it is positive; if it pulls back, it is bearish
•	Announcement of Sandong Phase II expansion and new resource reserves: Within 6-12 months, the impact is relatively positive
•	US and European critical minerals policies and 2027 procurement rules implemented: positive for non-Chinese suppliers within one year
•	Rwandan joint venture ore acquisition and plant construction progress: medium- to long-term, impact direction remains to be seen

From a surge to a halving, and then today's rebound

Over the past year, ALM has had a dramatic roller coaster: a 52-week low of $5.25, a high of $24.41, and a 12-month cumulative gain of 142.8%. The rise was driven by a surge in tungsten prices, inclusion of the Russell 1000 and 3000 indices in June, and massive convertible bond financing.

But in the past 30 days, the stock price has fallen about 9.1%, nearly halving from its high. The research report believes that the rise is "seriously disconnected" from fundamentals. Looking at it now, the first half of the year was driven by tungsten prices and expectations, the second half of the fall was a pullback after overdrawing, and the real revenue growth was actually realized during the stock price downturn.

It is worth noting that the report mentions that the widely discussed topic on social media is $ALMU (Aeluma, an optical semiconductor company), which has nothing to do with ALM's tungsten mining business. Misattribution due to similar codes may have amplified sentiment swings in this stock.

⚠️ Risk Notice • Profits include substantial non-cash revaluation gains, and book P/E does not represent true profitability • Tungsten prices are at historic highs, and once they fall, both revenue and profit elasticity will shrink simultaneously • If Sandong's climb falls short of expectations, its current valuation lacks a safety cushion • Convertible bond conversion brings potential equity dilution • The stock price remains below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating that technical conditions have yet to recover

🟡 Neutral Fundamentals are being realized, but brokerage divergence shows that most of the positive factors have already entered the price

💬 Discussion Many positive factors have already been priced in; do not chase the current price higher. Real-time buy and sell levels, post ALM on the official account to check.

Data source

•	Source: NextPick real-time snapshot + company quarterly earnings and SEC 6-K announcement + mainstream financial media coverage.