NEXT PICK · Market Insights
On SpaceX's listing day, why did RKLB plunge 11% in a single day?
Friday, June 12, 2026
With the Nasdaq 100 energized and SpaceX's IPO boost, RKLB opened high but fell sharply by 11%; The 100-fold price-to-sales ratio and Neutron's maiden flight marked a dividing line between bulls and bears.
Today, Rocket Lab staged a classic high opening and low run: opening at $119.01, up 3.7% from the previous close, but surging through the 100-dollar mark during the session, reaching a low of $99.61, and finally closing at $102.29, a single-day plunge of 10.88%, with trading volume expanding to 2.3 times the three-month daily average.
What's even more intriguing is that all of this happened on the same day two "positive news" materialized—the announcement of its official inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 on June 22 was just released, and industry giant SpaceX happened to make its IPO debut today.
Good news was realized as "selling news," and the appearance of leading stocks turned into capital siphons: on the same day, Virgin Galactic plunged 24%, AST SpaceMobile dropped 10%, and commercial aerospace stocks in the public market collectively lost blood. When a true king enters the arena, how much can the dream premium of second-tier players still be worth? **
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Latest price
$102.29
▼ -10.88%
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Q1 revenue
$200.3 million
▲ +63.5%
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Orders in hand
$2.2 billion
▲ Setting a new all-time high
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From Electron to Neutron: a company that builds rockets like an assembly line
Headquartered in Long Beach, California, Rocket Lab's business is divided into two segments: Launch Services and Space Systems. In Q1 2026, space systems contributed $136.7 million in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 57.2%; Launch services contributed $63.7 million, up 78.9% year-over-year—the latter grew faster, but the former was the main source of revenue.
Many people think it is just a "rocket manufacturer," but in fact, it is more like a vertically integrated aerospace manufacturer: rocket engines, rocket body structures, satellite platforms, on-board components, on-orbit management—the entire chain is handled in-house. Rutherford engines are manufactured using 3D printing, reducing production cycles from months to weeks—a process that competitors find hard to replicate.
Its flagship product, Electro, is a small rocket in low Earth orbit with a payload capacity of about 300 kilograms, specializing in the "exclusive launch of small satellites" business; The Neutron under development has a payload capacity of up to 13,000 kilograms and is aimed at large-scale constellation deployments. If Electron is a boutique courier, Neutron is a trunk freight — whether the latter can make its maiden flight on time directly determines the company's ceiling.
A hundredfold sales-to-sales ratio, and a record-breaking order book
Let's look at the hard data first
Q1 revenue was $200.3 million, up 63.5% year-on-year, setting a single-quarter record; GAAP gross margin of 38.2% is also the best in history; Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $11.8 million, far better than the company's own loss guidance of $21 million to $27 million; With $2.2 billion in orders on hand, it's another new high.
On the other hand, the net loss was still $45 million, with a loss per share of $0.07 and a negative price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Based on $601.8 million in revenue for fiscal year 2025, the price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of about $62 billion still corresponds to a hundred times the price-to-sales ratio, while the typical range for the aerospace and defense sector is only 10-20 times.
So why does the market offer a hundredfold valuation?
The answer is just one word
Neutron。 Even if optimistic assuming revenue doubles to $1.2 billion by 2027, the current market capitalization still corresponds to an expected price-to-sales ratio of over 50 times. On the cash flow side, free cash flow for fiscal year 2025 is -$165.5 million, and in the first quarter of this year is -$50.3 million. At this pace of burning, existing reserves can last for more than two years—dreams still have time, but not indefinitely.
Commercialization validation complete, a profit turning point is in sight, but the market has already taken action
The report positions Rocket Lab on the "eve of a breakout": operating margin improved from -41.3% in Q2 2025 to -28.0% in Q1 2026, adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed significantly, fixed cost dilution is visible, and breakeven is just a step away.
The problem is that the stock price has already taken the lead—it has risen about 300% over the past 12 months, hitting a record closing high of $150.23 on May 27, and has since pulled back more than 30% from $102.29 to today. Fundamentals are climbing, valuations are paying off debts—this is its current true position.
The fate of the second son: living in SpaceX's shadow, but living the best
Commercial launches are a typical oligopoly market
SpaceX dominates the market, while Falcon 9 leverages its recyclable technology to push launch costs to industry floor prices, and enters the small satellite market with a rideshare model. Today, SpaceX officially goes public, and this suppression extends from the business level to the capital level—capital can be directly invested in the leader, so why buy substitutes?
In the second tier, Rocket Lab is the undisputed leader: Electron has successfully launched over 50 times, the dual launch site layout in New Zealand and Virginia offers flexibility in orbital inclination and scheduling, and its ITAR (International Arms Trade Regulation) status as a local supplier is a ticket to U.S. defense orders—the $90 million Space Force contract is proof of this.
As for other opponents
Relativity Space's 3D printing route has yet to scale up, Firefly's commercialization lags by one to two years, Virgin Orbit has gone bankrupt, and Astra has effectively withdrawn from direct competition. The moat may not be impenetrable, but in the niche market of dedicated small satellite launches, it is currently unrivaled.
1-2% of players in the trillion-yuan track
Institutions estimate the global commercial space market total at about $447 billion, with launch services accounting for 5-8%, or roughly $22.5 to $36 billion. Falling to Rocket Lab, small satellite launches, medium-sized constellation deployments, and government defense launches combined serve a market worth about $10 billion to $16 billion.
With revenues just over $600 million in fiscal year 2025, it holds about 1-2% of the global commercial launch market share. The report's neutral forecast is for fiscal year 2027 revenue to reach around $1.2 billion—provided Neutron commercializes on time and government orders continue to grow. Low penetration is both space and risk: space belongs to companies that execute well, while risk belongs to companies that only tell stories.
Six cards for the bulls
The logic chain of the bulls does not rely on mysticism; every link has data to check:
| ▲ Bull Case |
| ① | Revenue acceleration: Q1 revenue was $200.3 million, up 63.5% year-on-year, setting consecutive records, with the full-year revenue expected to reach the $800 million level |
| ② | Operating leverage realized: Operating margin improved from -41.3% to -28.0%, and adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $11.8 million, beating guidance |
| ③ | Order visibility: A record $2.2 billion in orders on hand, and in Q1, the company signed the largest launch contract in its history—five exclusive Neutron missions |
| ④ | Neutron breaks the ceiling: its capacity is over 40 times that of Electron, targeting the large constellation market, with the service market expected to expand 5-8 times |
| ⑤ | Deepening defense penetration: $90 million Space Force contracts combined with ITAR qualifications and increased defense revenue share will improve revenue certainty and profit margins |
| ⑥ | Indexed funds: Officially included in the Nasdaq 100 on June 22, passive funds tracking this index will be passively allocated |
The bears' rebuttal was equally solid
Bears don't need to deny the gains; they only need to point out how much the price has already been overdrawn:
| ▼ Bear Case |
| ① | Valuation overdraft: Based on FY2025 revenue, the price-to-sales ratio is about 100 times, and the industry midpoint is 10-20 times; Even if revenue doubles in 2027, the expected price-to-sales ratio will still exceed 50 times |
| ② | SpaceX Double Crush: In business, the ride-sharing model continues to divert price-sensitive customers, and on its first day of listing, publicly traded aerospace stocks suffered collective losses |
| ③ | Neutron's Delay History: The first flight target has been pushed from 2024 all the way to the end of 2026, and in February this year, it experienced a test failure. Another delay would mean a valuation crash |
| ④ | Still burning cash: Free cash flow for fiscal year 2025 is -$165.5 million, and if Neutron suffers setbacks, additional issuance dilution is almost inevitable |
| ⑤ | Demand impulse risk: Small satellite demand heavily depends on intensive deployment periods for a few large constellations, and after deployment, the market may repeat the multi-year trough seen in the Iridium era |
Keep a close eye on these four things for the next 6-18 months
In the short term, RKLB's stock price will be almost entirely dominated by the following events, each with its own direction:
- Officially included in the Nasdaq 100 on June 22: Passive buying was a positive sign, but today's sharp drop suggests this positive has already been traded in advance
- Neutron's first orbital launch (company aims for the end of 2026): success means a valuation logic rewrite; failure or further delay could trigger a deeper pullback
- Operating profit turning positive in the second half of 2026: adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $11.8 million, marking the dividing line from story to business
- SpaceX's post-IPO sector pricing restructuring: For the first time, the public market has a full-spectrum benchmark, and its trading performance will continue to calibrate RKLB's valuation anchor
From SPAC Outcast to Index Constituent: A Three-Wheel Roller Coaster Ride in Five Years
Rocket Lab went public through a SPAC merger in August 2021, coinciding with a growth stock frenzy, with its price briefly surging above $21; Subsequently, rising interest rates broke through valuations, and by the end of 2023, the company had dropped to around $4 at one point. The company laid off staff twice to control costs, and the market almost forgot about it.
The turning point came in 2024: the wave of constellation deployments, expanded defense and space budgets, and expectations of a SpaceX IPO together ignited the sector, with RKLB rising about 300% in 12 months and closing at a historic high of $150.23 on May 27 this year. Every surge precedes fundamentals, and every pullback is unnoticed—today's -10.88% large bearish candlestick is just another repeat of history's script.
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⚠️ Risk Notice Before placing RKLB in the selection stock, please weigh three risks: if Neutron is delayed again or its maiden flight fails, the pillar of a 100x price-to-sales ratio will be instantly shaken. Based on its historical volatility, the pullback could be far greater than this time; After SpaceX's listing, the dual siphoning of capital and customers may long suppress the valuations and profit margins of second-tier aerospace stocks; The company continues to consume free cash flow at a rate of about $50 million per quarter, and once the financing environment tightens, equity dilution becomes almost inevitable. All information in this article is for public reference and research only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market carries risks; decisions must be made independently, and profits and losses are borne by the individual. |
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🟡 Neutral Growth and orders are real, but a hundredfold price-to-sales ratio has already drained Neutron's success in advance. |
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💬 Discussion After SpaceX goes public, will you buy the bottom at RKLB, or switch to the leading stock? |
Data source
- StockAnalysis: RKLB Real-Time Quotes, Market Cap, and P/E Ratio https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rklb/
- Yahoo Finance: RKLB Market Trends and Historical Data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RKLB/
- Investing.com: Rocket Lab Q1 2026 Financial Report Highlights (Revenue 200.3 million / Gross Margin 38.2% / Orders 2.2 billion) https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/rocket-lab-q1-2026-slides-record-revenue-up-64-backlog-hits-22b-93CH-4671036
- SEC: Rocket Lab FY2026 Q1 10-Q (net loss of $45 million) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001819994/000181999426000028/rklb-20260331.htm
- Yahoo Finance: SpaceX's listing on June 12 triggered a collective drop in aerospace stocks https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/virgin-galactic-craters-24-rocket-141846645.html
- TradingKey: RKLB June 12 single-day -12.49 USD regression https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/261964718-market-movers-rklb-20260612
- StockTitan: Rocket Lab included in the Nasdaq 100 announcement https://www.stocktitan.net/news/RKLB/rocket-lab-to-join-the-nasdaq-100-uy0savvwrb17.html on June[22]
- 24/7 Wall St: Neutron's Year-End 2026 Maiden Flight Target and Five-Year Return Review https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/06/10/rocket-lab-delivered-835-returns-in-five-years-is-it-still-a-buy/