SK Hynix evaporated 13.69% in one day—is it crashing or getting on board?

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SK Hynix evaporated 13.69% in one day—is it crashing or getting on board?

Thursday, July 16, 2026

A company listed on the Nasdaq for only six trading days dropped 13.69% in a single day, closing at $152.31, opening at 165.91, with an intraday low of 151.38—this isn't a blown by a concept stock, but SK Hynix, the global leader in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) share.

On July 10, it listed on Nasdaq with a $26.5 billion American Depositary Receipt (ADR) issuance, surging on its first day and being dubbed "the closest memory factory to NVIDIA"; Six days later, the market had completely wiped out the gains from the first day.

On one side is the analyst average target price as high as $342.50; on the other, the AI trading panic across the entire industry is resurging—so is today's large bearish candlestick a profit-taking effect of crowded trading, or the first signal of a fundamental crack?

Latest price $152.31 ▼ -13.69%

Analyst target average $342.50 ▲ Potential for doubling

Forward price-to-earnings ratio About 8 times more — Profit surges and diluts

It's not "a Korean memory factory," but rather the nail in NVIDIA's supply chain that can't be removed

SK Hynix's main business spans two main areas: one is DRAM (covering servers, graphics, mobile, PC, and consumer memory), and the other is NAND flash, solid-state drives (SSDs), and multi-chip packaging, while also doing some non-storage foundry business. What truly repriced it in the market was HBM.

In Q1 2026, it holds the top spot in the global HBM market with a 56.4% revenue share; According to industry sources, it will supply about two-thirds of NVIDIA's next-generation HBM4 usage. This is not the role of a "participant," but rather a "chokehold."

HBM requires collaborative design with AI chips, with electrical interfaces, heat dissipation, and signal integrity all matched against each item, with certification cycles lasting 18 to 24 months. Once on the mass production list, customers almost never change suppliers midway. You can think of it as a piston customized for the engine—the specs aren't universal, and the cost of a replacement is so high that no one wants to try it.

So, why was a company that occupies the throat of AI computing power and has just opened its doors to global investors reverted to its original state within six days? The answer lies in its contract, not in its technology.

The report says "valuation data is missing," but the real ledger is quite the opposite

First, let me correct a misleading statement

Putting SK Hynix in the category of "no profit, valuation metrics completely blank" is a failure in data scraping, not the truth about the company. It is one of the most profitable storage manufacturers in the entire industry.

Let's look at the first quarter

Revenue is about 52.6 trillion KRW, operating profit is about 37.6 trillion KRW, and the operating profit margin is as high as 72%. Market expectations for the second quarter are even more exaggerated—revenue is likely to surge quarter-on-quarter and nearly triple year-on-year, with consensus operating profit around 65 trillion KRW. Because profits are exploding, its static P/E ratio is 22.2 times, while its forward P/E ratio is diluted to about 8 times.

So why does the market only offer an eightfold forward valuation in the face of such profits? This is precisely the core of the division: some people think eight times is a bargain price and a mistake; Others believe that the eightfold is an honest way the market is pricing that "contracts lock up upside."

The cash flow side is also worth watching

Semiconductors are a capital-intensive heavy asset business, and HBM4 and advanced processes must continuously absorb huge capital expenditures. TSMC has raised its 2026 capital expenditure to $60 to $64 billion. As a key upstream component, memory procurement is closely tied to cloud providers' capital expenditures—this is both a tailwind and a rope tied to the cycle.

Moving averages not yet stable, market voting "undecided"

The signals from the technical side are very straightforward

The latest price is $152.31, both below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (both lines are at 172.69 because the market is too new and the two lines temporarily overlap), about 11.8% below the moving average. The intraday low of 151.38 is already close to the historical low of 151.30.

This is a typical stage of "early listing, with unsettled cognition": the options chain has just launched, institutions are still testing between building positions and hedging, and price discovery is far from complete. Is it the starting point of a long-term uptrend being misplaced, or is it a return to value after emotional exhaustion on the first day? Every candlestick below the moving average is the ticket the market hasn't finished investing yet.

Three oligopolies are competing for NVIDIA's orders, with deep moats, but not uninhabited territory

SK Hynix's direct competitors are two and a half companies: Samsung Electronics (Samsung), Micron Technology ($MU), and Western Digital ($SNDK, formerly SanDisk), which faces off on the NAND side. Just today, while SK Hynix fell 13%, Samsung also plunged nearly 9% in Seoul—this is more like a sector-level stampede than a single issue.

The HBM market is highly concentrated and dominated by a duopoly, with SK Hynix and Samsung dominating, and Micron closely following. According to industry sources, three companies are competing for supply contracts for NVIDIA's next-generation 16-Hi HBM4; Samsung's HBM3E is already in mass production, and Micron's 1β process is in place—leading does not equal monopoly.

Its moat is real

75 years of manufacturing experience, leading advanced packaging and thermal management patents, and a high certification wall lasting 18 to 24 months. But the width of the moat depends on whether it can continue with the first delivery as HBM4 evolves to HBM5. Technological leadership is a "present tense," not a "permanent license," don't you agree?

On the demand side, people shout "exponentially," but no one dares to set a precise ceiling

The qualitative assessment on the demand side is quite optimistic

The chairman of SK Hynix publicly stated that demand is "huge and growing exponentially," and all partners are demanding more goods. TSMC's capital expenditure guidance of $60 to $64 billion can serve as a proxy indicator for AI infrastructure expansion and, consequently, HBM demand growth.

However, to provide precise TAM/SAM/SOM, the data does not support it. The direction is clear: AI construction is expanding from GPU single points to full-stack packaging, HBM, networking, and power supply, with the storage value of individual machines still rising. The real variable isn't whether the cake will get bigger, but whether SK Hynix can continue to take the biggest piece in the next generation.

What are the bulls betting on?

The logic of the bulls is simple: a market leader with explosive profits and market share is mistakenly pushed below the moving average by sector sentiment.

▲ Bull Case

What are bearish people worried about?

The core of bears isn't "technical failure," but "no matter how hot AI is, it can't get the richest part."

▼ Bear Case

The financial report at the end of July is the first trump card to be laid out

In the coming quarter, several factors will dominate its price rhythm. Whoever pays first will have the say in the next leg:

•	July 29 Q2 earnings call: Verify whether operating profit truly falls short of consensus expectations as the bears fear
•	The actual progress of full-scale HBM4 mass production in Q3: determining whether the delayed upside expectations can be restored
•	Final allocation of NVIDIA 16-Hi HBM4 supply contracts: a direct reading of the share battle
•	Capital expenditure guidance for the three major cloud providers for the second half of the year: upstream barometer for HBM demand
•	Institutional position building rhythm after liquidity shocks fade in the early days of listing: determining whether oversold can be restored

Six days: From "closest to NVIDIA" to "back to square one"

Reviewing this astonishingly short candlestick: On July 10th, SK Hynix listed on Nasdaq with a $26.5 billion ADR offering, surging on its first day and labeled as "bigger, cheaper, and closer to NVIDIA." The chairman said in front of cameras that demand was "massive."

The turning point came very quickly. On July 13, a report from a Korean brokerage firm lowered its second-quarter profit forecast, causing it to record the largest single-day drop on record in Seoul—the market seriously priced in the "contract lock-up" for the first time. Since then, the AI storage sector has been under continuous pressure. Today, combined with the collective correction in Asian tech stocks and the trigger of KOSPI's 37th circuit breaker mechanism this year, SK Hynix fell another 13.69% in a single day, giving back all its gains on the first day.

The lessons left behind are clear

The sentiment and liquidity in the early days of listing can push prices away from fundamentals and pull them back within days. At this moment, the possibility of "wrong killing" and "seeing things clearly" coexists; the answer will have to wait for the financial report at the end of July to materialize.

⚠️ Risk Notice • Long-term contracts capped average prices, AI price hikes are unlikely to translate into performance elasticity • Semiconductors are cyclical in a strong cycle; after demand "explosion," inventory and price adjustments may follow • HBM4 mass production has been postponed to the third quarter, raising uncertainty about the timing of deliveries • Customers are highly concentrated in AI chip manufacturers, so any reduction in capital expenditure will have a direct impact • Changes in Korea-US technology trade policies may disrupt export and supply chain stability

🟡 Neutral Market share and profits are there, but contracts lock in upward movement, so valuation gains have to be realized through earnings reports.

💬 Discussion In the short term, cautious and earnings reports are the dividing line. For its current real-time buy and sell positions, post SKHY on the official account to check.

Source

NextPick real-time snapshot + SK Hynix earnings report cross-checked with SEC listing filings + Korean brokerage research + public reports from mainstream financial media (CNBC, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, etc.).